Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has recorded one of its worst monthly performances in history, and with current conditions, many analysts expect the downtrend to continue with a break of the $18,000 support.

According to CoinDesk, June was a difficult month for the entire cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin lost 37.3% of its value in these 30 days, which is the worst monthly performance of this digital currency since 2011. Ethereum did not fare better than Bitcoin and faced a 45% drop.

This fall is largely the result of macroeconomic problems and changes that have made investors more risk-averse than before.

Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer of Arca Funds, said:

The past three months were one of the worst on record for almost the entire stock market, bond market and various other sectors.

Currently, inflation in America is still at the highest level since the last 40 years, the supply chain and global trade are in an uncertain situation, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not over yet. This is why financial market investors feel fear, and of course their fear is completely reasonable.

The "GDPNow" index, which is one of the tools of the US Central Bank office in Atlanta to measure the state of gross domestic product in this country, fell by one percent in the second quarter of 2022. In addition, the American economy is facing negative growth for the second month in a row, and this means that the economic recession may have already started in this country.

Despite this, it cannot be said that the fall of the digital currency market is entirely caused by external factors. Last month, the digital currency market experienced a major shock, which resulted in more price drops than major stock market indices.

Two weeks ago, the price of CEL, the main token of the lending platform, fell by 50% after the Celsius platform suspended user withdrawals. However, by recovering part of its value, this digital currency was able to reduce its loss to 24% by the end of the month.

The digital currency exchange CoinFLEX (CoinFLEX), which mainly focuses on derivatives trading, has also stopped its withdrawals. The token of this exchange (FLEX) has also lost more than 65% of its value in the last 24 hours.

Dorman says about this:

This story has two parts. On the one hand, there are platforms active in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi), which have served their users admirably and without any problems during this time, and on the other side are centralized platforms like Celsius, which have been destroyed.

Some analysts believe that starting July, Bitcoin will lose the $18,000-$20,000 support it held in June.

Joe DiPasquale, CEO of BitBull, said:

For now, a successful price rebound after hitting this support is likely and could be a prelude to a gradual recovery over the next few months. However, a break of the support of this area ($18,000) could push Bitcoin down to $13,000-15,000 and send the market into a cycle where prices will need more time to recover.

The impact of the rejection of the request to launch a Bitcoin cash ETF in the US

The discount or the difference in the price of each share of the Grayscale investment fund compared to Bitcoin (Grayscale Discount), which is also an important indicator, has recently found a bigger gap with the rejection of the Grayscale Institute's request to launch a cash exchange fund (ETF) in the US Exchange Commission; This means that the difference in the price of each share of this fund has increased compared to Bitcoin.

Each share of the Grayscale Bitcoin Investment Fund (GBTC) is currently trading at a price 31% lower than Bitcoin, while before the announcement of the decision of the United States Exchange Commission, the difference in the price of Grayscale Fund shares and Bitcoin was 28.4%. Was.

Pablo Jodar, one of the senior managers of Storm Partners (Storm Partners), says that the widening of this gap is a sign of decreasing optimism of investors regarding the change of the decision of the Exchange Commission regarding cash ETFs in the short term; The exact opposite happened last week, and investors were buying shares of the institution's Bitcoin fund, hoping that Grayscale's request would be accepted.

Jodar said about this:

Now, the publication of the news of the United States Exchange Commission's opposition to the offering of Bitcoin cash ETFs has a negative effect on the state of Grayscale fund shares.